Tempe, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

527
FXUS65 KPSR 031705
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
1005 AM MST Tue Dec 3 2024

.UPDATE...
Updated Aviation

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Tranquil weather conditions will continue to prevail over the Desert
Southwest throughout the remainder of week. High temperatures are
expected to remain near 10 degrees above average with fairly mild
overnight lows. Dry conditions are anticipated with no rain chances
in the forecast through at least the coming weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A large scale upper level ridge continues to dominate across the
Western U.S. with a very broad and dry upper level low positioned
within the ridge over California. This Rex Blocking pattern has been
providing quiet and warm weather conditions to our region since last
week and will continue to do so through at least the coming weekend.
Very little change to the day to day sensible weather conditions are
expected for the rest of the week with only periods of higher level
clouds, even as the broad upper level low slowly drifts
southeastward through out region during the latter half of the week.
High temperatures today will be nearly identical to yesterday with
readings from the upper 70s across the western deserts to the lower
80s across the Phoenix area.

As the broad upper level low moves over our region on Wednesday, we
should see temperatures dip a few degrees with highs mainly in the
mid 70s. Additionally, expect a bit more cloud cover focused over
the higher terrain north and east of the Phoenix area. Through the
rest of the week, the low will gradually drift southward into
northern Mexico allowing high temperatures to warm back into the
upper 70s, or around 10 degrees above normal. Guidance then suggests
the Rex Block will start to break down over the weekend with some
ridging temporarily nudging back over our region before a more
progressive Pacific trough drops out of the northwest into the
Western U.S. early next week. Despite the ridge moving over our
region this weekend, NBM forecast temperatures barely budge.
Eventually, the progressive trough is expected to dive southeastward
into or just to the north of our region around next Monday/Tuesday
timeframe. For now, this system looks to be quite dry and will
likely only bring some increased winds and a cooling trend with
readings closer to normal by the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1705Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT; and
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

No major weather issues will exist through Wednesday afternoon under
occasional passing high cirrus decks. East winds should prevail the
majority of the time across the Phoenix metro with low forecast
confidence that wind directions will fully complete a westerly
switch late afternoon/early evening. A extended variable component
may be more common. Across SE California, W/NW winds will be
preferred with prolonged periods of nearly calm conditions likely.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The ongoing stagnant weather pattern will keep dry conditions and
above normal temperatures in place all week. Expect overall light
winds each day somewhat following diurnal wind patterns, but with
some breeziness mainly this morning across the higher terrain of
eastern Arizona. MinRHs mainly in the teens can be expected over the
lower deserts to as high as 30-40% over the Arizona higher terrain.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kuhlman
AVIATION...18
FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman